Debunking a myth: Illegal Alien crime

One argument that a lot of liberals like to throw out is that immigrants, including illegals, commit crime at a much lower rate than Americans.  They use this as if that’s a good reason to let them in…like crime is an average rather than an aggregate.  They’ll cite studies like that done by the CATO Institute as they proudly proclaim this.  You’ll notice they’ll never include the crime of entering the country illegally in the first place when they tally up these statistics.

This article from American Thinker is a bit old, 2015, but offers a lot of useful information.  It’s important to keep in mind that these numbers go off the absolutely absurd notion that there’s only 11 million illegals in the country.  That number has been bandied about for years now, as if all illegal immigration stopped.  The number is likely upwards of 30-40 million…but they don’t want you to know that…being that it would represent about 10% (!!!) of the population.  The rate of illegal immigration has likely only increased since these numbers have come out, and with that have their violent crimes.

Per the GAO, “as of fiscal 2009, the total alien – non-U.S.-citizen – population was about 25.3 million, including about 10.8 million aliens without lawful immigration status.”

Since the population of the U.S. was about 306.8 million in 2009, non-citizens comprised 8.25% of the population and illegal aliens about 3.52%. (Recall that they represented 25% of the federal prison population then, and almost 39% in 2013.)

How many crimes did they commit? Almost three million. Here they are.

Now here is where the data get dicey: how do we convert these numbers to rates so that we can compare illegal aliens and non-citizens to other groups, such as U.S. citizens or inhabitants? We have to look at how the GAO determined those estimates.

“To determine the type of offenses for which criminal aliens were convicted, we analyzed data from the U.S. Sentencing Commission on federal convictions of criminal aliens from fiscal years 2003 through 2009 and conviction data from five states – Arizona, California, Florida, New York, and Texas – from fiscal years 2005 through 2008.”

So now we have an apples and oranges problem. The federal data cover seven years and all non-citizens. The state and local data cover four years and illegal aliens only (and only those reported via SCAAP).

Let’s take homicide as an example. The GAO estimates “criminal aliens” were arrested, convicted and incarcerated for 25,064 homicides. If non-citizens committed them over seven years, the annual rate would be 14.2 per 100,000 non-citizens. If illegal aliens committed them over four years, the annual rate would be 58.0 per 100,000 illegal aliens. Either way you compute, those are high rates.

By comparison, the FBI reports the murder rates for the entire U.S. from 2003 through 2009 varied from 5.0 to 5.8 per 100,000 inhabitants for an average rate of 5.5. To be clear, 5.5 is much lower than either 14.2 or 58.0.

Or look at the total number of homicides in those years. Per the FBI, there were 67,642 murders in the U.S. from 2005 through 2008, and 115,717 from 2003 through 2009. Per the GAO, criminal aliens committed 25,064 of them. That means they committed 22% to 37% of all murders in the U.S., while being only 3.52% to 8.25% of the population.

Conclusion: criminal and illegal aliens commit murder at much higher rates than all inhabitants of the U.S. – at least 3 to 10 times higher.

And I believe these are low-end estimates. For one, murder is almost always handled at the state and local level, not the federal level. So the GAO’s homicide data are skewed toward the state and local data, which cover fewer years (four) and a smaller population (illegals only). The Washington Post states that “Federal prisoners made up 10 percent of the total incarcerated populations in the United States in 2013.”

OK, let’s assume that 90% of the crimes listed by the GAO (other than immigration itself) were committed by SCAAP persons in state and local institutions. That would mean illegal aliens committed 22,558 murders over four years. That is a rate of 5,639 per year, or over 15 per day. (For reference, Rep. Steve King reported a figure of 12 per day. A sheriffs’ association is reported to estimate it at 25 per day. I don’t know how reliable these values are, but they are not totally out of line with the GAO’s data.)

That would give a murder rate for illegal aliens of 52 per 100,000 (5,639 in a population of 10.8 million) – about 10 times that of U.S. citizens.

Here are the numbers of crimes per day committed by illegal aliens in just a few crime categories, based on those GAO numbers and the 90% figure for SCAAP persons over four years.

  • Kidnappings:  9
  • Murders:         15
  • Sex offenses:   43
  • Burglaries:       71
  • Assaults:         131

There’s a lot of evidence to suggest these numbers are under-reported if anything.  And what of catch and release?  Do those statistics count I wonder?  It probably depends on the city and state reporting the crime.  Something tells me the illegal stats tallied in San Francisco are done in such a way to make it appear less worse than it really is.

We need to win the war of ideas and we cannot continue to sit by and listen and not speak up when the NPCs chirp these statements as if they are concrete fact.  This is one of those lines they like to repeat constantly, along with “diversity is our strength” and “we’ve always been a nation of immigrants”.  Do not be afraid to call them out on this.  There’s a good chance a lot of other people in the conversation quietly agree or you may just turn them onto an idea they hadn’t considered or heard before.

 

2 responses

  1. U.S. Customs and Border Protection: Criminal Alien Report for Fiscal Year 2018 Year to Date

    November 13, 2018

    By David Olen Cross

    United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is an important element of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) who along with other elements of DHS collectively work together in attempting to keep our nations citizens and residents safe from foreign national threats to public safety.

    A critical responsibility of U.S. Customs and Border Protection is preventing foreign nationals (criminal aliens) who have been convicted of domestic or foreign crimes and deported from the country from illegally entering or reentering the United States of America.

    The U.S. Border Patrol Criminal Alien Statistics webpage is an excellent source for information that indicates the number of criminal aliens CBP caught, interdicted or prevented from entering the country. Moreover, the Criminal Alien Statistics webpage reveals the types of prior criminal convictions that prohibited them by federal law from being legally present in the country.

    For Fiscal Year 2018 Year to Date (FY2018YTD), October 1, 2017 – August 31, 2018, U.S. Customs and Border Protection has taken into custody and arrested 6,259 criminal aliens (Note: CBP’s Fiscal Year runs from October 1, 2017 – September 1, 2018).

    Listed below are the total criminal convictions of the 6,259 criminal aliens by types and numbers of crimes for FY2018YTD; the most recent U.S. Customs and Border Protection criminal alien numbers available were posted on the CBP webpage on October 23, 2018 (Note: The preceding CBP number of criminal aliens doesn’t match the actual number of illegal alien criminals because some aliens had more than one criminal conviction.).

    Types of Criminal Convictions Number Criminal Convictions

    – Assault, battery, domestic violence 506;

    – Burglary, robbery, larceny, theft, fraud 322;

    – Driving under the influence 1,062;

    – Homicide, manslaughter 3;

    – Illegal drug possession, trafficking 816;

    – Illegal entry, re-entry 3,637;

    – Illegal weapons possession, transport, trafficking 98;

    – Sexual offenses 78;

    – Other offenses 1,298.

    Total Number of Criminal Convictions: 7,820

    Explaining the preceding numbers, U.S. Customs and Border Protection took into custody and arrested for FY2018YTD 6,259 criminal aliens having 7,820 previous criminal convictions.

    To help politicians, electronic / hardcopy media outlets or interest persons put a real world face on some of the 6,259 criminal aliens that were arrested by U.S. Customs and Border Protection for illegally entering or reentering the country during FY2018YTD the CBP Newsroom webpage is a starting point to look for local or national media releases on criminal aliens.

    Wanting to find out if U.S. Customs and Border Protection detained and arrested any criminal aliens convicted of crimes in the State of Oregon, I clicked on the upper left side of the CBP Newsroom webpage on News Releases and opened the Media Releases webpage.

    Near the top of the CBP Media Releases webpage I set the date search criteria to reflect the FY2018YTD time period (October 1, 2017 – August 31, 2018), set the Media Releases box to read Local Media Releases, typed in the Keywords box Oregon, clicked the Apply button and multiple stories that fit the parameters of my search appeared in the form of individual press releases.

    Here are excerpts and hyperlinks to five U.S. Customs and Border Protection press releases about criminal aliens with past criminal convictions apprehended by CBP for illegal reentry into the country with a past connection to Oregon:

    “Yuma Border Patrol Agents Arrest Rapist with Kidnapping and Burglary Convictions

    Friday, May 25, 2018 | Local Media Release

    YUMA, Ariz. – Border Patrol agents patrolling the area of San Luis, Arizona arrested a Mexican national with previous felony convictions of first-degree rape, second-degree kidnapping, and first-degree burglary early Thursday evening. Photo Courtesy…”
    Read More >

    “Yuma Border Patrol Agents Arrest Convicted Rapist

    Thursday, March 29, 2018 | Local Media Release

    YUMA, Ariz. – Yuma Station Border Patrol agents arrested a previously deported Mexican national with multiple felony convictions late Tuesday. At approximately 9:30 p.m., agents arrested Jose Arajo-Dominguez, a 50-year-old Mexican national, after he…”
    Read More >

    “Border Patrol Agents Arrest Man Convicted of Manslaughter

    Monday, March 12, 2018 | Local Media Release

    TUCSON, Ariz. – Tucson Station Border Patrol agents arrested a Mexican man Sunday afternoon shortly after he illegally entered the United States south of Three Points. The agents later learned of his first-degree manslaughter conviction in Oregon….”
    Read More >

    “Border Patrol Agents Arrest Convicted Felon

    Friday, January 19, 2018 | Local Media Release

    TUCSON, Ariz. – Tucson Sector Border Patrol agents assigned to the Ajo Station arrested a previously-deported Mexican man Thursday afternoon and later discovered he was convicted and incarcerated for Class A felonies in 2007. Agents patrolling near…”
    Read More >

    “Ajo Agents Arrest Illegal Alien Convicted of Rape and Assault

    Tuesday, January 16, 2018 | Local Media Release

    TUCSON, Ariz. – Border Patrol agents assigned to the Ajo Station arrested a Mexican man Sunday morning with a conviction for rape and assault in Marion County, Oregon in 2012. Agents patrolling in Lukeville, Arizona, arrested five men illegally…”
    Read More >

    Following the preceding how to instructions, politicians, electronic / hardcopy media outlets or interested persons, if they aren’t already doing so, can now to put a face on some of the 6,259 criminal aliens, possibly with a connection to their state or location, with past criminal convictions who were arrested and detained by U.S. Customs and Border Protection for illegal entry or reentry into the United State of America.

    David Olen Cross of Salem, Oregon is crime researcher who writes on immigration issues and foreign national crime. The preceding report is a service to federal, state, county and city elected and non elected governmental officials to help them assess the impact of foreign national crime in the United States of America. He can be reached at docfnc@yahoo.com. His past crime reports can be found at http://docfnc.wordpress.com/.

    https://docfnc.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/u-s-customs-and-border-protection-criminal-alien-report-for-fiscal-year-2018-year-to-date-2/

    Liked by 1 person

  2. That is a great resource David, thank you! Might I also suggest the Center for Immigration Studies (https://cis.org/) as well for those looking for more resources. Those numbers are for those convicted. I wonder how many commit crimes that go either unreported or not convicted. I’d imagine it’s shockingly high.

    Like

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